One of the key "inputs" for the next iteration of Plan Bay Area (the region's Sustainable Communities Strategy adopted pursuant to SB 375) has been set by ABAG. At its meeting on January 21, ABAG's Executive Board adopted a resolution establishing the "Regional Housing Control Total" for Plan Bay Area 2.0. The Regional Housing Control Total is essentially the region's projected housing need for the period 2010-2040. This regional housing figure was a source of significant controversy and debate in Plan Bay Area 1.0--in fact, it was one of the central issues in BIA Bay Area's legal challenge to Plan Bay Area 1.0, with BIA arguing that the regional housing need figure failed to satisfy SB 375 and as a result was substantially lower than the law required. As part of BIA's settlement agreement with ABAG and MTC, the agencies agreed to use a different process and methodology to calculate the regional housing need in future updates to Plan Bay Area.
The housing figure adopted for Plan Bay Area 2.0 is 822,000 new housing units (2010-2040). This represents a significant increase from the 660,000 for Plan Bay Area 1.0 (also 2010-2040). The increase results from a more robust forecast of regional job growth than the agencies used for Plan Bay Area 1.0, as well as an end to the agencies' practice of understating the Bay Area's regional housing need by relying on increased in-commuting from new housing outside the region.
